Dubbed by means of pundits as a building “miracle”, Bangladesh is slated for commencement from the standing of “Least Evolved Nation” to “Creating Nation” by means of 2026.
But, unexpectedly, the country reveals itself struggling with comparisons with Sri Lanka, which has simply skilled an financial free-fall. Bangladeshi mainstream media and social media are flooded with speculations in regards to the nation’s forthcoming cave in like its fellow South Asian country.
Everybody from the high minister’s administrative center and teams of eminent economists to the American ambassador in Dhaka has chimed in to argue why they imagine Bangladesh continues to be a long way got rid of from a Sri Lanka-like cataclysmic implosion.
They could also be most effective partially proper.
Bangladesh’s GDP is in regards to the dimension of the Pakistani and Sri Lankan economies mixed. Bangladesh’s foreign currencies reserves are $39bn, greater than two times the $18bn of the ones two neighbours in combination. In keeping with the finance ministry, Bangladesh’s overall debt-to-GDP ratio stands at simply over 31 p.c, when put next with 119 p.c for Sri Lanka. Bangladesh has a better in line with capita GDP than India and is outperforming different main South Asian international locations in key socioeconomic metrics.
Given the above backdrop, why are Bangladeshis interested in their nation sliding, like Sri Lanka, into an financial cave in?
The solution lies no longer such a lot in financial statistics however in 3 key similarities between the international locations that can have refrained from the eyes of a few exterior professionals. Those are: authoritarianism below dynastic rule; corruption and cronyism; and debt-fuelled vainness initiatives.
Just like the Rajapaksa circle of relatives, the Sri Lankan political dynasty that advised the rustic into its contemporary wasteland of melancholy, Bangladesh has been dominated for the previous 14 years by means of the Awami League celebration, led by means of the circle of relatives of High Minister Sheikh Hasina. Whilst the Rajapaksas have been no less than democratically elected a number of occasions – together with as just lately as in 2019 – Hasina returned to energy in 2018 by means of an election the place the rustic’s safety equipment allegedly stuffed ballot boxes the evening previous to the vote. The ruling Awami League received 96 percent of the seats, a consequence as lopsided as is generally the case for the rulers of North Korea, Syria, and Cambodia.
Through the years, each the Rajapaksas and the Sheikh circle of relatives have drawn their political legitimacy from their much-fabled wartime management. In 2009, then-President Mahinda Rajapaksa and his brother, defence minister Gotabaya Rajapaksa, have been in rate when the Sri Lankan govt decisively vanquished the Tamil Tiger guerilla combatants in Sri Lanka’s decades-old civil conflict. Likewise, Hasina’s father, Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, led Bangladesh’s conflict of independence towards Pakistan part a century in the past.
Promoting their circle of relatives’s wartime bravado to their impoverished and nationalistic target market, each the Sheikhs and Rajapaksas established de-facto fiefdoms, the place nearly each residing member in their respective clans were given positions of energy.
The Rajapaksas ran Sri Lanka like a “circle of relatives company”. Sooner than the brothers’ rule crumbled final month, Gotabaya used to be president, Mahinda high minister and their 3rd brother Basil used to be a cupboard minister. Their youngsters additionally held ministerial positions – all concurrently.
High Minister Sheikh Hasina’s circle of relatives in Bangladesh has adopted a equivalent template, regardless that much less officially. Her daughter Saima Wazed, observed by means of many as her heir-apparent, attends state purposes and conferences together with her mom. Sajeeb Wazed, the expatriate son of the high minister, enjoys the identify of ICT adviser, with de-facto oversight of the rustic’s profitable virtual generation transformation. The high minister’s sister Rehana, nephews, nieces, cousins and their youngsters are entrusted with key tasks starting from managing propaganda organisations, diplomatic and donor relationships, military affairs, parliamentary memberships and operating industry conglomerates.
Such keep an eye on over the state equipment and personal companies invariably breeds autocracy and disregard against public opinion and political warring parties. That, in flip, spawns rampant corruption and cronyism. That’s what came about with the Rajapaksas in Sri Lanka, the place protesters discovered opulence within the presidential palace at variance with the dire stipulations of the rustic. That also is the truth in Bangladesh below the Sheikh circle of relatives.
What about vainness initiatives?
The Rajapaksas constructed a $1bn port that hardly ever noticed any ships, a $210m airport the place hardly ever any planes landed and a 35,000-seat cricket stadium bearing Mahinda Rajapaksa’s identify that seldom hosted any video games. Those are the poster youngsters of Sri Lanka’s debt-funded excesses that sank the country.
Bangladeshis are actually busy evaluating their very own white elephants with Sri Lanka’s. Whilst the federal government has offered austerity measures, together with energy rationing, and police have fired upon – or even killed – the ones protesting towards worth hikes, Bangladesh goes forward with the development of a $140m cricket stadium bearing the high minister’s identify.
The Hasina govt is busy developing a number of multibillion-dollar mega initiatives, together with a $12bn nuclear energy plant in Rooppur, which is considerably dearer than equivalent initiatives in different international locations. When the Global Financial institution declined to fund Bangladesh’s just lately finished Padma Bridge, mentioning corruption, Bangladesh self-funded and finished the 6km (3.7-mile) lengthy bridge after spending thrice the preliminary price range ($3.8bn vs $1.2bn).
Inside a few month of opening the Padma Bridge amid a lot jubilation, the rustic frantically wrote letters to the Global Financial Fund, Global Financial institution and Asian Building Financial institution for loans to stay the economic system afloat amid a stability of fee disaster because of emerging oil costs.
It’s conceivable the federal government acted prudently by means of pre-emptively chatting with the lenders of final motels. In the end, the Bangladesh govt will have to have observed in Sri Lanka what financial rigidity can do when an autocrat’s grand cut price of “much less democracy, extra building” fails.
But it’s hardly ever sudden that the folks of Bangladesh see eerie parallels with Sri Lanka, because the distinction between their dwindling non-public budget and the corruption-prone vainness initiatives turns into sharper. Seeing the cave in of Sri Lanka’s debt-driven, dynastic authoritarianism, the Bangladeshis aren’t irrational of their fear: “Are we subsequent?”
The perspectives expressed on this article are the writer’s personal and don’t essentially mirror Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
